Port Congestion in 2025: What the Data Says About Who Survives It
Port congestion in 2025 is structurally worse than what you saw in 2021 — and the carriers absorbing the least damage have one thing in common. Here is what they are doing differently.
Ryan Cole
January 3, 2025 · 5 min read
Port congestion in 2025 is structurally different from the 2021–2022 COVID-era crisis. That cycle was driven by a sudden demand shock against static infrastructure. The current environment is driven by sustained elevated import volumes meeting incremental infrastructure improvements — and the resulting conditions are worse for drayage carriers who haven't adapted their operations.
The volume picture
West Coast ports processed record container volumes in Q4 2024, driven primarily by front-loaded imports ahead of anticipated tariff changes and continued consumer spending. LA/LB combined handled approximately 1.2 million TEUs in November 2024 — one of the highest months on record outside the 2021 peak.
East Coast ports absorbed record diversions from West Coast in 2023 and have not seen those volumes normalize. NY/NJ, Savannah, and Houston are now facing dwell time and gate congestion issues that mirror what the West Coast experienced in 2021.
What this means for drayage carriers
Extended dwell times at terminals create two specific problems for drayage carriers:
Appointment scarcity: When containers stack up, terminals reduce available appointment windows to manage gate throughput. Carriers who book appointments at slot-release — the first available moment — get access. Carriers who check portals once a day during business hours do not.
Compressed LFD windows: When a vessel discharge is delayed by 24–48 hours due to port congestion, the LFD doesn't always extend proportionally. Carriers are left with less time to pick up containers that arrived later than expected.
The operational response
Carriers navigating congestion successfully in 2025 share one operational characteristic: they have real-time terminal visibility and automated appointment booking. They know when containers discharge, when appointments release, and when LFDs are at risk — and they act on that information faster than the congestion can compound.
Manual dispatch operations, by contrast, compound the congestion problem. Every hour of delay in booking an appointment during a congested period is another hour of dwell time the carrier absorbs.
The forecast
Infrastructure investment at major US ports is running 3–5 years behind freight volume projections. The Panama Canal's capacity constraints continue to influence routing decisions. Shippers have demonstrated willingness to front-load orders when tariff environments are uncertain.
For drayage carriers, the operational message is clear: the competitive gap between automated and manual operations widens in congested environments. The carriers taking market share in 2025 are the ones whose appointment booking doesn't sleep.
The chassis shortage compounding factor
Port congestion doesn't arrive alone. When terminals stack up, chassis availability at the gate drops simultaneously. Carriers who had appointments for container pickup find chassis not available when they arrive, burning the appointment slot and needing to rebook. In a congested environment where slots are scarce, a missed pickup due to chassis shortage may mean a 3–5 day wait for the next available appointment — well past the LFD.
Automated dispatch systems that integrate chassis availability data into the booking decision can hold appointment bookings until chassis inventory at the relevant yard confirms availability, preventing the appointment-burn scenario.
Pre-pull and yard storage strategies
When LFD expiry is imminent and appointment slots are unavailable, some carriers use pre-pull — retrieving the container to a storage yard to stop the demurrage clock — even if the final delivery appointment isn't secured. This is a legitimate strategy in congested environments but requires precise timing: the demurrage clock stops when the container leaves the terminal, but per-diem charges begin when the carrier takes possession of the chassis.
Carriers navigating congestion successfully track both clocks simultaneously — terminal demurrage exposure and carrier per-diem accumulation — optimizing the pull timing to minimize combined cost. Manual operations almost never do this. Automated operations can make this calculation per-container in real time.
What 2025 specifically looks like
The 2025 congestion environment has a specific driver that distinguishes it from prior cycles: tariff front-loading. Importers anticipating additional tariff increases in H2 2025 began pulling forward orders in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. This front-loaded volume hit terminals that had already contracted their off-peak staffing, creating a mismatch between gate capacity and container throughput that will take months to clear.
The secondary effect: terminals under congestion pressure reduce available appointment windows to control gate throughput. A terminal that normally offers 400 appointments per day drops to 280 during peak congestion. The same volume of containers now competes for 30% fewer slots. The carriers who win those slots are the ones booking at release — not the ones checking portals during business hours.
The chassis and container timing mismatch
When terminal congestion spikes and appointment slots are scarce, the timing between container availability and chassis availability becomes critical. A carrier who books an appointment for day three but doesn't have chassis confirmed until day four has wasted the slot and must rebook — into an even more congested window.
The operational response is chassis pre-positioning: having chassis at the relevant yard before the appointment is needed, not after. Manual operations rarely execute this consistently because it requires tracking two separate data streams — terminal appointment windows and chassis yard inventory — simultaneously. Automated dispatch can hold appointment bookings until chassis availability at the relevant yard confirms, preventing the scenario entirely.
Who survives it
The operational characteristic shared by the carriers taking market share during congestion is not capital, equipment, or connections. It's information speed. They know when containers discharge. They know when appointments release. They know when LFDs are at risk. And they act on that information before the congestion compounds.
Manual dispatch operations, by contrast, compound the congestion problem. Every hour of delay in booking an appointment during a congested period is another hour of dwell time the carrier absorbs — and potentially another hour closer to an LFD breach. The gap between automated and manual operations widens precisely when the environment is most stressed.